Tasha Pemberton's 2026 Business Outlook For Helen: Tubing Will Float, Pretzels Will Salt, And Commissioner Henneman Will, Per Every Forecasting Model I Can Construct, Propose Something
The close of January is, by this publication's convention, the traditional moment at which our business desk files its annual look-ahead at the twelve months of the Helen economy. This year, I offer the following: Helen's tubing economy will extend, for the seventeenth consecutive year, its year-over-year revenue growth; Hofer's of Helen will serve approximately 187,000 bratwursts, up from 2025's 181,000; the 56th Annual Oktoberfest will run the announced 53 days; the Helen Welcome Center will have at least one unanticipated visitor of national prominence; and Commissioner Dale Henneman of the White County BOC will, per my forecast model, propose between eleven and fourteen additional resolutions of substantial institutional novelty. My confidence in the last is high.
ByTasha Pemberton· Business & Economy ReporterPublished January 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM UTC · 3 min read
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My desk at the newsroom, Friday afternoon, bearing the three spreadsheets — 2019-2025 Chamber of Commerce tourism-revenue historicals, White County FY2024-FY2025 variance-log summaries, and the Helen Business License renewal roster for calendar 2026 — that together constitute, per my own professional practice, the primary source base for a 2026 outlook. (Photo: Bavarian Brainrot / Tasha Pemberton)
A business-outlook piece is, in the convention of our trade, a
structured act of forecasting under uncertainty. The reporter uses
the three tools available: the historical trend (what has reliably
continued in prior years), the current signal (what has started to
shift in the preceding quarter), and a calibrated willingness to be
wrong (a professional acknowledgment that the confidence interval on
most forecasts is, even at its tightest, embarrassingly wide).
I offer, for the Helen and greater White County economy, the
following twelve-month outlook. I have divided my predictions into
four confidence tiers.
Tier one: high-confidence predictions
I am willing to stake professional reputation on these.
Tubing revenue will rise year-over-year.Cool River Tubing and
Helen Tubing Company's combined 2026 gross revenue will, per my
forecast model, fall in the range $18.8-$19.6 million — a 5-9%
increase over 2025's $17.8 million. This would be the seventeenth
consecutive year of year-over-year growth.
Hofer's bratwurst volume will exceed 185,000 units. Hofer's
2025 bratwurst volume was approximately 181,000. Per my model,
2026 volume will fall between 185,000 and 192,000.
The 56th Annual Oktoberfest will run the announced 53 days and
will not be extended beyond the November 1 closing date.
Commissioner Dale Henneman will propose between 11 and 14
resolutions of substantial institutional novelty. He has, in the
period January 6 through January 28, 2026, already filed three
(Resolutions 2026-02, 2026-43, and the subpoena matter documented
in our January 21 editorial). The 2026 pace-to-date suggests an
annual total within my predicted range.
Tier two: medium-confidence predictions
I believe these will occur but do not stake reputation on them.
The Helen Welcome Center will host at least one unanticipated
visitor of national prominence. Director Winslow Bach has, per
my informal canvassing, hosted, in the last four calendar years,
one such visitor annually (2022: an unnamed U.S. senator; 2023: a
country-music performer of mid-tier national profile; 2024: the
sitting governor of a Midwestern state; 2025: the director of a
major Los Angeles art museum, whose visit was a matter of
scheduling happenstance).
The Helen Pretzel Salt Council will continue to operate
substantially without oversight by the Helen Chamber of Commerce
and will produce at least one additional public-facing action of
the approximate magnitude of its 2026 Dua Lipa announcement (a
second such action has not yet been identified at press time).
Mount Yonah will not acquire a ski resort in calendar year
(This prediction addresses the Alpine Yonah proposal
documented in our January 29 report. My model places the proposal's
probability of advancing to Planning Commission approval at
approximately 11%.)
Tier three: possible-but-speculative predictions
I flag these for reader interest; I do not strongly forecast them.
The Helen Festhalle will host a private wedding of at least one
of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's attending ceremony participants,
though not necessarily the principals themselves.
Cool River Tubing's CEO Amos Redwine will retire or step down
from day-to-day operational leadership at some point during 2026.
(Basis: informal conversational signal during a December 2025
interview on a separate matter.)
The Glockenspiel will be the subject of between 2 and 4
additional BOC resolutions beyond those already filed in
January.
Tier four: personal guesses
These are offered for recreational purposes only, without any
forecasting confidence.
Someone will open a new cuckoo-clock shop in downtown Helen.
(There are currently three. I estimate a 35% chance of a fourth.)
The Chattahoochee will experience a minor late-summer ice
event. (This is, in the climate record of Northeast Georgia,
absolutely implausible. I am placing a tier-four marker on it
anyway, on the basis of a dream I had Tuesday night.)
I will be, on December 31, 2026, approximately as wrong as I
have been in every previous outlook I have written. (Every
December 31 is a humbling day for the business-desk reporter.)
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